Long-Term historical and Projected Herbivore Population Dynamics in Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania

The Ngorongoro Crater is an intact caldera with an area of approximately 310 km2. Long term records on herbivore populations, vegetation and rainfall made it possible to analyze historic and project future herbivore population dynamics. In 1974 there was a perturbation in that resident Maasai and their livestock were removed from the Crater. Vegetation structure changed in 1967 from predominately short grassland to mid and tall grasses dominating in 1995. Even with a change in grassland structure, total herbivore biomass remained relatively stable from 1963 to 2012, implying that the crater has a stable multi-herbivore community. However, in 1974, Maasai pastoralists were removed from the Ngorongoro Crater and there were significant changes in population trends for some herbivore species. Buffalo, elephant and ostrich numbers increased significantly during 1974-2012. The zebra population was stable from 1963 to 2012 whereas numbers of other eight species declined substantially between 1974 and 2012 relative to their peak numbers during 1974-1976. Numbers of Grants and Thomsons gazelles, eland, kongoni, waterbuck (wet season only) declined significantly in the Crater in both seasons after 1974. Wildebeest numbers decreased in the Crater between 1974 and 2012 but this decrease was not statistically significant. In addition, some herbivore species were consistently more abundant inside the Crater during the wet than the dry season. This pattern was most evident for the large herbivore species requiring bulk forage, comprising buffalo, eland, and elephant. Analyses of rainfall indicated that there was a persistent annual cycle of 4.83 years. Herbivore population size was correlated with rainfall in both the wet and dry seasons. The relationships established between the time series of historic animal counts in the wet and dry seasons and lagged wet and dry season rainfall series were used to forecast the likely future trajectories of the wet and dry season population size for each species under three alternative climate change scenarios.