The probability of evolutionary rescue with competition: scaling-up from a single species to a community

When ecological communities experience environmental change, continued coexistence may require rapid adaptation to avoid extinction, i.e., evolutionary rescue. This rescue can be inhibited by competition. Combining Lotka-Volterra and population genetic models, we investigate how both within- and between-species competition impact the probability of rescue. With a single species we derive closed-form approximations that quantify the negative impact of competition. We then use a two-species model to examine how the sweep of a rescue mutant in one species inhibits establishment of rescue mutants in another, a process we term survival interference. This interference is strongest when the stronger competitor begins recovering first, creating eco-evolutionary priority effects despite conditions permitting deterministic coexistence. Finally, considering larger competitive communities, we document how survival interference reduces the number of rescued species but weakens with species richness and unevenness. These results move us closer to predicting evolutionary rescue in ecological communities.