Predicting forest tree leaf phenology under climate change using satellite monitoring and population-based GWAS

Abstract

Leaf phenology, a critical determinant of plant fitness and ecosystem function, is undergoing rapid shifts due to climate change, yet its complex genetic and environmental drivers remain incompletely understood. Understanding the genetic basis of phenological adaptation is crucial for forecasting forest responses to a changing climate. Here, we integrate multi-year satellite-derived phenology from 46 Fagus sylvatica (European beech) populations across Germany with a population-based genome-wide association study to dissect the environmental and genetic drivers of leaf-out day (LOD) and leaf shedding day (LSD). We show that environmental factors, particularly temperature forcing and water availability, are the primary drivers of LOD variation, while LSD is influenced by a more complex suite of climatic cues. Our genomic analysis identifies candidate genes associated with LOD and LSD, primarily linked to circadian rhythms and dormancy pathways, respectively. Furthermore, genomic prediction models incorporating these loci accurately reconstruct past phenological dynamics, providing a powerful framework to forecast forest vulnerability and adaptation to future climate change.