How will changes in local climate affect hawksbill hatchling production in Brazil?

Local climatic conditions can influence sea turtle embryonic development and hatchling viability. Therefore, it is crucial to understand these influences as well as potential ramifications to population stability under future climate change. Here, we examined the influences of five climatic variables (air temperature, accumulated and average precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at different temporal scales on hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) hatchling production at ten nesting beaches within two regions of Brazil (five nesting beaches in Rio Grande do Norte and five in Bahia). Air temperature and accumulated precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hawksbill hatching success across Brazil and in Rio Grande do Norte, while air temperature and average precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hatching success at Bahia. Solar radiation was the main climatic driver of emergence rate at both regions. Conservative and extreme climate scenarios show air temperatures are projected to increase, while precipitation projections vary between scenarios and regions throughout the 21st century. We predicted hatching success of undisturbed nests (no recorded depredation or storm-related impacts) will decrease in Brazil by 2100. This study shows the determining effects of different climate variables and their combinations on an important and critically endangered marine species.