Rapid, precise, and reliable phenotyping of delay discounting using a Bayesian learning algorithm

Machine learning has the potential to facilitate the development of computational methods that improve the measurement of cognitive and mental functioning. In three populations (college students, patients with a substance use disorder, and Amazon Mechanical Turk workers), we evaluated one such method, Bayesian adaptive design optimization (ADO), in the area of delay discounting by comparing its test-retest reliability, precision, and efficiency with that of a conventional staircase method. In all three populations tested, the results showed that ADO led to 0.95 or higher test-retest reliability of the discounting rate within 10-20 trials (under 1-2 minutes of testing), captured approximately 10% more variance in test-retest reliability, was 3-5 times more precise, and was 3-8 times more efficient than the staircase method. The ADO methodology provides efficient and precise protocols for measuring individual differences in delay discounting.