Mouse eradication is required to prevent local extinction of an endangered seabird on an oceanic island

Petrels (Procellariidae) are a highly diverse family of seabirds, many of which are globally threatened due to the impact of invasive species on breeding populations. While predation by invasive cats and rats has led to the extinction of petrel populations, the impact of invasive house mice Mus musculus is slower and less well documented. However, mice impact small burrow-nesting species such as MacGillivrays prion Pachyptila macgillivrayi, a species classified as endangered because it has been extirpated on islands in the Indian Ocean by introduced rodents. We use historic abundance data and demographic monitoring data from 2014 to 2020 to predict the population trajectory of MacGillivrays prion on Gough Island with and without a mouse eradication using a stochastic integrated population model. Given very low annual breeding success (0.01 fledglings per breeding pair in poor years (83%) or 0.38 in good years (17%), n = 320 nests over 6 years) mainly due to mouse predation, our model predicted that the population collapsed from ~3.5 million pairs in 1956 to an estimated 175,000 pairs in 2020 despite reasonably high adult survival probability ({phi} = 0.901). Based on these parameters, the population is predicted to decline at a rate of 9% per year over the next 36 years without a mouse eradication, with a 31% probability that by 2057 the MacGillivray prion population would become extremely vulnerable to extinction. Our models predict population stability ({lambda} = 1.01) and a lower extinction risk (<10%) if mouse eradication on Gough Island restores annual breeding success to 0.519, which is in line with that of closely-related species on predator-free islands. This study demonstrates the devastating impacts that introduced house mice can have on small burrowing petrels and highlights the urgency to eradicate invasive mammals from oceanic islands.