Unifying ecosystem resistance, resilience, and recovery from extreme stress into a single statistical framework

Natural communities and ecosystems are currently experiencing unprecedented rates of environmental and biotic change. While gradual shifts in average conditions, such as rising mean air temperatures, can significantly alter ecosystem function, ecologists recently acknowledged that the most damaging consequences of global change will probably emanate from both a higher prevalence and increased intensity of extreme climatic stress events. Given the potential ecological and societal ramifications of more frequent disturbances, it is imperative that we identify which ecosystems are most vulnerable to global change by accurately quantifying ecosystem responses to extreme stress. Unfortunately, the lack of a standardized method for estimating ecosystem sensitivity to drought makes drawing general conclusions difficult. There is a need for estimates of resistance/resilience/legacy effects that are free of observation error, not biased by stochasticity in production or rainfall, and standardizes stress magnitude among many disparate ecosystems relative to normal interannual variability. Here, I propose a statistical framework that estimates all three components of ecosystem response to stress using standardized language (resistance, resilience, recovery, and legacy effects) while resolving all of the issues described above. Coupling autoregressive time series with exogenous predictors (ARX) models with impulse response functions (IRFs) allows researchers to statistically subject all ecosystems to similar levels of stress, estimate legacy effects, and obtain a standardized estimate of ecosystem resistance and resilience to drought free from observation error and stochastic processes inherent in raw data. This method will enable researchers to rigorously compare resistance and resilience among locations using long-term time series, thereby improving our knowledge of ecosystem responses to extreme stress.