An fMRI-based brain marker predicts individual differences in delay discounting

Abstract

Individual differences in impatience--how much we discount future compared to immediate rewards--are associated with general life outcomes and related to substance use, psychiatric diseases, and obesity. Here, we use machine-learning on fMRI activity during an intertemporal choice task to develop a brain marker of individual differences in delay discounting. Study 1 (N=110) was used as a training and cross-validation set, resulting in significant prediction accuracy (r = 0.49) and suggesting an interplay between brain regions associated with affect, value, and cognitive control. The validity of the brain marker was replicated in an independent data set (Study 2, N=145, r = 0.45). In both studies, responses of the marker significantly differed between overweight and lean individuals. This pattern is a first step towards a generalizable neuromarker of delay discounting and a potentially transdiagnostic phenotype, which can be used as a brain-based target measure in future studies.