Viral kinetics of H5N1 infections in dairy cattle

Abstract

Since early-2024 unprecedented outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b have been ongoing in dairy cattle in the United States with significant consequences for the dairy industry and public health. Estimation of key epidemiological parameters is required to support outbreak response, including predicting the likely effectiveness of interventions and testing strategies. Here we pool limited publicly available data from three studies of naturally and experimentally infected dairy cattle. We quantify Ct value trajectories of infected dairy cattle and the relationship between Ct value and the log-titre of infectious virus, {beta}2 a proxy for infectiousness. We estimate that following infection peak Ct values are rapidly reached within 1-2 days with a population mean Ct value of 16.9 (13.2, 20.5). We identify a critical threshold Ct value of 21.5 (20.1, 23.6), with values of Ct value above this threshold representing little-to-no infectious viral load. Finally, we estimate the distribution of the duration of infectiousness for dairy cattle (i.e. the duration their Ct value remains above the critical threshold) with a population median of 6.2 (2.8, 13.1) days.