James M. McCaw

Modelling between-cell heterogeneity in within-host influenza virus infection

The paper develops a mathematical model to study how cell tropism affects viral fitness in influenza, showing tradeoffs and the importance of measuring cell type proportions with viral load.

Viral kinetics of H5N1 infections in dairy cattle

The paper estimates viral kinetics of H5N1 infections in dairy cattle using Ct values and infectiousness proxies, finding rapid Ct value peaks and a critical threshold for infectiousness.

Estimation of the probability of epidemic fade-out from multiple outbreak data

The paper estimates the probability of epidemic fade-out using Bayesian hierarchical modeling on synthetic outbreak data, showing improved accuracy compared to individual epidemic analysis.

Modelling the population dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes in humans during malaria infection

This study models Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte dynamics in humans using a mathematical model validated by Bayesian inference, revealing key parameters affecting malaria transmission.

A sub-exponential branching process to study early epidemic dynamics with application to Ebola

The paper introduces a sub-exponential branching process model to study early epidemic dynamics, applied to Ebola data showing sub-exponential transmission.

Predicting the Outcomes of New Short-Course Regimens for Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis Using Intrahost and Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Modelling

The paper uses mathematical models to predict that short-course bedaquiline regimens could reduce MDR-TB treatment to 18 weeks with high success rates.