Greenland's thaw pushes the biodiversity crisis
C. Ureta, S. Ramirez-Barahona, O. Calderon-Bustamante, P. Cruz-Santiago, C. Gay-Garcia, D. Swingedouw, D. DeFrance, A. P. Cuervo-Robayo
Abstract
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have led to sustained global warming over the last decades1. This is already reshaping the distribution of biodiversity across the world and can lead to the occurrence of large-scale singular events, such as the melting of polar ice sheets2,3. The potential impacts of such a melting event on species persistence across taxonomic groups - in terms of magnitude and geographic extent - remain unexplored. Here we assess impacts on biodiversity of global warming and melting of Greenlands ice sheet on the distribution of 21,146 species of vascular plants and tetrapods across twelve megadiverse countries. We show that high global warming would lead to widespread reductions in species geographic ranges (median range loss, 35-78%), which are magnified (median range loss, 95-99%) with the added contribution of Greenlands melting and its potentially large impact on oceanic circulation and regional climate changes. Our models project a decline in the geographical extent of species hotspots across countries (median reduction, 48-95%) and a substantial alteration of species composition in the near future (mean temporal dissimilarity, 0.26-0.89). These results imply that, in addition to global warming, the influence of Greenlands melting can lead to the collapse of biodiversity across the globe, providing an added domino in its cascading effects.
02 /Specification & Classification
Click any tag to browse matching papers- Research Focus
- Approach
Reproducibility ledger
Nobody has reported trying to reproduce this paper yet. Did you replicate an experiment or run the code? Your report saves the next lab a week.
Sign in to file a reproducibility report.
Related papers
- Glacier extinction homogenizes functional diversity
N. Khelidj, M. Caccianiga, … G. Losapio·bioRxiv·Sep 25, 2023
- Impacts of global food supply on biodiversity via land use and climate change
E. H. Boakes, C. Dalin, … T. Newbold·bioRxiv·May 3, 2023
- Late Quaternary climate-driven shifts in arctic plant distributions
Paul T. Markley, Barnabas H. Daru·Journal of BiogeographyPeer-reviewed·Mar 1, 2026
- How exposure to land use impacts and climate change may prune the tetrapod tree of life
L. J. Beaumont, D. A. Nipperess, … M. Esperon-Rodriguez·bioRxiv·Feb 1, 2022
- Land use and climate warming interact to reshape global avian biodiversity through ecological filtering and homogenisation
Chenchen Ding, Tim Newbold, … Zhiheng Wang·bioRxiv·Oct 9, 2026
- Habitat fragmentation mediates the mechanisms underlying long-term climate-driven thermophilization in birds
Juan Liu, Morgan W. Tingley, … Xingfeng Si·bioRxiv·Apr 15, 2024