COUPLING OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND DIRECT TRANSMISSIONMECHANISMS: ANALYSIS OF A SIMPLE MODEL

Abstract

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWWe study an extension of an environmentally mediated epidemiological model that incorporates direct human-to-human transmission. While the original formulation accounted for environmental exposure, it did not include direct transmission between individuals. Allowing both transmission routes to interact leads to significant qualitative changes in the system dynamics. The analysis reveals multiple dynamical regimes governed by environmental and combined threshold quantities. The stability of the disease-free equilibrium is controlled by an environmental threshold, whereas a combined reproduction number determines the onset of multistability. For certain parameter ranges, endemic equilibria coexist with the disease-free equilibrium, giving rise to backward-type bifurcation behavior and sensitivity to initial conditions. Moreover, the direct transmission rate acts as an organizing parameter by inducing the emergence of an environmental-free equilibrium when exceeding its classical threshold. These results highlight how environmentally coupled transmission mechanisms can generate rich dynamics in low-dimensional models.