Spatio-temporal model reduces species misidentification bias of spawning eggs in stock assessment of spotted mackerel in the western North Pacific

Abstract

Species identification based on morphological characteristics includes species misidentification, leading to estimation bias of population size. The eggs of spotted mackerel Scomber australicus and chub mackerel S. japonicus in the western North Pacific has been identified based on egg diameter. Recent density of spotted mackerel was considerably high despite its low stock biomass. A possibility of this phenomenon is due to overestimation because the difference in egg diameter has become ambiguous between two species. However, we cannot test this possibility using DNA analysis because the eggs are fixed with formalin. Here, we estimated the index of egg density of spotted mackerel using a spatio-temporal model that incorporates the effect of egg density of chub mackerel on the catchability of spotted mackerel, using 15 years data of spawning eggs. We then examined how retrospective biases in estimated stock abundance were reduced when using the index from the model. The index estimated from the model decreased temporal fluctuation and showed smooth patterns. Especially, the recent index was considerably revised down rather than the nominal index. Additionally, the retrospective bias decreased ca. half compared with the nominal index. Therefore, incorporating species misidentification bias should be an essential process for improving stock assessment.