How small is too small? Genetic signatures from naturally small populations of a large island vertebrate, the Turks and Caicos Rock Iguana

Small populations are increasingly common on the landscape, and many face rising probabilities of extinction. Demographic factors alone can drive a small population into an extinction vortex, but genetic factors such as inbreeding and genetic drift lead to reductions in genetic diversity and expression of deleterious alleles, further impacting fitness. Populations on islands are also impacted by founder effects, minimal gene flow, and habitat constraints, yet naturally small, island populations have persisted through many generations despite all these factors. This suggests that island biota may operate at smaller viable population sizes than their mainland counterparts while avoiding extinction vortices. Using 26 microsatellites, we describe the genetic diversity and population structure of 13 subpopulations of a large island vertebrate, the endangered Turks and Caicos rock iguana (Cyclura carinata), found on a range of small cays (0.151-374ha). Most subpopulations had decreased genetic variation but limited evidence of inbreeding despite small island size. Even with water barriers limiting gene flow, some subpopulations in geographical proximity are functioning as a metapopulation while others are not. These subpopulations are not in danger of extirpation, even though census size could be as low as 10 individuals. We believe this study shows that C. carinata has a low population size threshold for long-term persistence that can inform the species' future management, such as with conservation translocations. Furthermore, this project anecdotally adds more evidence to how island populations persist through selection despite genetic drift.