Balancing disease control efficacy, resistance durability, and economic outcomes: Insights from a participatory modeling study integrating grapevine cultivar deployment timing with fungicide treatments

Abstract

1In this study, we developed, assessed and compared strategies for deploying disease-resistant grapevine cultivars in partnership with a wine cooperative in South-West France. In four collaborative workshops, cooperative managers and multidisciplinary researchers jointly designed six feasible deployment strategies. These scenarios, implemented within real vineyards, involve planting resistant cultivars (RC) in vineyards (i) more than 30 years old, (ii) on 3.3% of the older plots each year or (iii) on plots located in no-treatment zone (due to proximity to watercourses or human dwellings), with and without a fixed maximum percentage of resistant cultivars in the vineyard. The strategies were evaluated with the landsepi model, which simulates the spread and evolution of pathogens across agricultural landscapes in response to host resistance deployment. The assessment criteria included downy mildew control efficacy, resistance durability, decrease in fungicide use, and economic benefits for individual vineyards and the cooperative. These scenarios led us to study more specifically the effects of two little-studied factors: (i) the presence or absence of fungicide applications and (ii) the massive or progressive introduction of resistant cultivars. Fungicide application substantially decreases the risk of resistance breakdown and complements the epidemiological control provided by resistant cultivars, particularly when the fitness costs of virulence are low. The probability of pathogens adapted to RC becoming established was generally lower with progressive than massive RC introduction; however, when establishment did occur, the time to establishment was shorter for progressive strategies at a cropping ratio [≥] 50%. Ultimately, the choice of RC introduction strategy had a minimal overall impact on disease control due to compensatory epidemiological and evolutionary processes, including dilution effects, and the probability and timing of resistance breakdown. These results are discussed in the broader framework of action-research approaches and the challenges and opportunities for resistant cultivar adoption by vine-growers. Our study highlights the potential of participatory approaches for developing practical, scientifically grounded strategies for sustainable viticulture.