Population dynamics of Diatraea spp. Under different climate offer conditions in Colombia.

Abstract

Seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns on a global scale are the main factors to identify the sharing of organisms. Accordingly, insects and plants come to adapt to combinations of various factors through natural selection, although periodic outbreaks in insect populations occur especially in areas where they have not been previously reported, is a phenomenon that is considered as a consequence of global warming. In the study, we sought estimate the distribution of the sugarcane stem borers, Diatraea spp., under different climate scenarios. Weekly collections were carried out in four sugarcane field plots in four different towns from the Colombian department of Caldas during a consecutive year, and also from sugarcane plots from the Cauca river valley between 2010 and 2017. The influence of climatic variables on the climate in different agro-ecological zones of sugarcane crops (Saccharum sp.) was defined by using climatic data (maximum, minimum and daily temperatures; accumulated precipitation) on a daily scale between 2010 and 2017. MODESTR(R) was used to generate the distribution maps to estimate probability distributions subject to restrictions given by the environmental information. Diatraea spp. is strongly influenced by the effects of climate change, considerably reducing its population niches as well as the number of individuals. The estimate of an optimal niche for Diatraea spp. includes temperatures between 20{degrees}C and 23{degrees}C, accumulated annual rainfall between 1200 and 1500 mm, months with dry conditions, whose precipitation is below 50 mm, slopes below 0.05, crop heterogeneity with an index of 0.2 and primary production values of 1.0. Summary statementDiatraea spp. is susceptible to temperature variations due to climate change, it is presumed that its adaptability could benefit Diatraea spp. in establishing itself in new areas.