Threshold responses of aquatic microbial diversity to terrestrial land use across Mediterranean catchments

Abstract

Climate driven aridification and intensified human activity are placing increasing pressure on Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems. These impacts propagate from land to water, altering nutrient regimes and reshaping aquatic microbial communities. We analysed Arcellinida diversity across 363 lentic inland saline and freshwater sediment samples spanning broad gradients of land use, water chemistry, soil properties, and climate in southern Spain. Random forest models identified terrestrial land use intensity followed by water chemistry as main predictors of community diversity. Diversity declined sharply in sites with population densities above [~]33 inhabitants/km{superscript 2} and under eutrophic conditions, but peaked in oligotrophic systems with stable, carbon rich soils. These threshold responses demonstrate that aquatic protist assemblages integrate both long term terrestrial pressures and current water conditions. Overall, our findings show that landscape transformation and its cascading effects on water quality dominate community assembly, and that the combination of community level diversity metrics with selected taxon-level indicators capture ecosystem degradation more consistently than relying on a single metric.