Will Current Protected Areas Harbour Refugia for Threatened Arctic Vegetation Types until 2050?

Arctic vegetation is crucial for fauna and the livelihoods of Northern peoples, and tightly linked to climate, permafrost soils, and water. Yet, a comprehensive understanding of climate change effects on Arctic vegetation is lacking. Protected areas cannot halt climate change, but could reduce future pressure from additional drivers, such as land use change and local industrial pollution. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the contribution of protected areas in safeguarding threatened Arctic vegetation types. We compare the 2003 baseline with existing 2050 predictions of circumpolar Arctic vegetation type distributions and demonstrate an overrepresentation of dominant and underrepresentation of declining vegetation types within protected areas. According to IUCN criteria, five of eight assessed vegetation types were classified as threatened by 2050. Potential climate change refugia, areas with the highest potential for safeguarding threatened vegetation types, were also identified. This study provides an essential first step to assessing vegetation type vulnerability based on predictions covering 46% of Arctic landscapes. The co-development of new protective measures by policymakers and indigenous peoples at a pan-Arctic scale requires more robust and spatially complete vegetation prediction, as increasing pressures from resource exploration and infrastructure development threaten the sustainable development of the rapidly thawing and greening Arctic.