Colonization and extinction dynamics and their link to the distribution of European trees at continental scale

Aim Processes driving current tree species distribution are still largely debated. Attempts to relate species distribution and population demography metrics have shown mixed results. In this context, we would like to test the hypotheses that the metapopulation processes of colonization and extinction are linked to species distribution models.Location Europe: Spain, France, Germany, Finland, and Sweden.Taxon Angiosperms and Gymnosperms.Methods For the 17 tree species analyzed we fitted species distribution model (SDM) relating environmental variables to presence absence data across Europe. Then using independent data from national forest inventories across Europe we tested whether colonization and extinction probabilities are related to occurrence probability estimated by the SDMs. Finally, we tested how colonization and extinction respectively drive probability of presence at the metapopulation equilibrium.Results We found that for most species at least one process (colonization/extinction) is related to the occurrence probability, but rarely both.Main conclusions Our study supports the view that metapopulation dynamics are partly related to SDM occurrence probability through one of the metapopulation probabilities. However these links are relatively weak and the metapopulation models tend to overestimate the occurrence probability. Our results call for caution in model extrapolating SDM models to metapopulation dynamics.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.View Full Text