Adaptive management plans rooted in quantitative ecological predictions of ecosystem processes: putting monitoring data to practical use

It is demonstrated how a hierarchical structural equation model that is fitted to temporal ecological monitoring data from a number of sites may be used to generate local ecological predictions and how these local ecological predictions may form the basis of adaptive management plans. Local ecological predictions will be made for the cover of cross-leaved heath on Danish wet heathlands, which is one of the indicators that determine the conservation status of wet heathlands under different management scenarios. Based on a realistic example, the model predictions concludes that grazing by domestic herbivores on wet heathlands with a relatively low cover cross-leaved heath cannot be recommended as the only management practice. Generally, it is recommended to use ecological monitoring data to generate quantitative and credible local adaptive management plans where the uncertainty is taken into account.