A dispersal model for Cenchrus setaceus (Poaceae) in Mexican urban context

Urban environments suffer from multiple ecological issues, such as the invasion of alien. In Mexico, Cenchrus setaceus (African fountain grass) has been introduced as an ornamental species in the 1990s spreading all around the country. The aim of the present study is to propose an invasion models, based on the temporal dispersion of C. setaceus seeds using field data from the metropolitan area of Guadalajara, Jalisco, distinguished between planted individuals from self-propagated ones, quantifying seeds fertility ex situ. Model indicate that the current infested area of the Guadalajara metropolitan area could reach 51-89% within 100 years. Applied to three cities in Chiapas, the model shows limited spread over 50-year period from existing foci but strong sensitivity to new ornamental introductions. An analysis of containment strategies estimates an invasion front velocity of 0.13 km/year and identifies a 3-km-wide buffer zone as necessary to halt spread over a 25-year horizon.