Bridging Ecological Inference and Decision Optimization for Conservation Using Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

The ability to model the complex and uncertain population dynamics of endangered species has improved dramatically in recent decades. However, approaches to identify optimal decisions often require a simplified representation of population dynamics. This leads to a conundrum where managers may be unsure about the output of dynamic decision models because they rely on simplified assumptions of the underlying population dynamics. Here, by pairing integrated population models (IPM) that synthesize diverse ecological data with deep reinforcement learning (DRL) capable of optimizing decisions with high-dimensional uncertainty, we introduce a framework that delivers data-driven and ecologically detailed adaptive management strategies. We demonstrate its utility through application to the supplementation program for the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow. Using our IPM-DRL framework, we developed an adaptive decision model that selects production and distribution decisions of the supplementation program in response to the observed demographic, hydrological, and genetic environment. The decision model outperformed all heuristic approaches in the simulation across management objectives that weighed persistence and effective population size-related genetic impact differently. For example, the currently deployed supplementation strategy performed 5.3% worse than the decision model under the persistence-focused objective scoring and 185% worse under the genetics-focused one. Analysis of the models decisions in relation to demographic and environmental covariates revealed that minimum sub-population size and total population size were primary drivers of the models decisions. The results demonstrate that the IPM-DRL framework offers a high-performing and interpretable decision-support tool for managing endangered species. SignificanceConservation problems, like imperiled species management, are often challenging because the system dynamics are complex and uncertain. We demonstrate how combining an integrated population model that infers key demographic processes from noisy ecological data with a deep reinforcement learning framework that optimizes management actions addresses these challenges by generating high-performing supplementation strategies for a conservation-dependent species. Our approach embeds two decades of monitoring data within a multi-objective decision-making environment that accounts for ecological uncertainty. The result is a generalizable framework that links ecological inference directly to actionable policy outcomes, enabling scientists and managers to move beyond describing system states and processes toward identifying optimal management actions.