The road to nowhere: geolocation-by-genotype traces large-scale yellow-browed warbler vagrancy to central Siberia

Vagrant animals - individuals found far outside their normal range - offer powerful natural experiments for understanding migratory mechanisms. The yellow-browed warbler (Phylloscopus inornatus) provides perhaps the best-yet example, typically migrating from Siberia to South/Southeast Asia yet found in increasingly large numbers in Western Europe. This represents a strikingly unresolved evolutionary puzzle: why do so many migrants consistently move in almost the complete wrong direction? A critical first step toward solving this enigma is determining where these birds come from. If vagrants came from the proximal western range edge this would imply simple disorientation, whilst a more easterly origin could imply large-scale reverse misorientation. Here, we develop a geolocation-by-genotype algorithm for low-coverage whole-genome resequencing data collected from feathers. Our method identifies spatially informative SNPs; clusters them to account for covariance in allele frequency through space; and employs a bootstrapped maximum-likelihood framework to estimate spatial origin with uncertainty. Applied to more than 80 European-caught birds, our results place their origin in central Siberia (118{degrees}E; 89-134{degrees}E [95% CI]); over 2000km east of the western range edge. These results suggest mass misorientation in a near-reverse direction, and highlight the yellow-browed warbler as an exceptional system for probing the mechanism, ontogeny and evolution of migration.