Predictor species: Improving assessments of rare species occurrence by modelling environmental co-responses

Abstract

Designing an effective conservation strategy requires understanding where rare species are located. Although species distribution models are primarily used to identify patterns at large spatial scales, their general methodology is relevant for predicting the occurrence of individual species at specific locations. Here we present a new approach that uses Bayesian networks to improve predictions by modelling environmental co-responses among species. For species from a European peat bog community, our approach consistently performs better than single-species models, and better than conventional multi-species models for rare species when calibration data are limited. Furthermore, we identify a group of "predictor species" that are relatively common, insensitive to the presence of other species, and can be used to improve occurrence predictions of rare species. Predictor species are distinct from other categories of conservation surrogates such as umbrella or indicator species, which motivates focused data collection of predictor species to enhance conservation practices.