Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Onset of Nasal Passage Infection by SARS-CoV-2 With Respect to Heterogeneity in Host Physiology and Host Cell-Virus Kinetic Interactions

Abstract

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, positive nasal swab tests have revealed dramatic population heterogeneity in viral titers spanning 6 orders-of-magnitude. Our goal here is to probe potential drivers of infection outcome sensitivity arising from (i) physiological heterogeneity between hosts and (ii) host-variant heterogeneity in the detailed kinetics of cell infection and viral replication. Toward this goal, we apply global sensitivity methods (Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient analysis and Latin Hypercube Sampling) to a physiologically faithful, stochastic, spatial model of inhaled SARS-CoV-2 exposure and infection in the human respiratory tract. We focus on the nasal passage as the primary origin of respiratory infection and site of clinical testing, and we simulate the spatial and dynamic progression of shed viral load and infected cells in the immediate 48 hours post infection. We impose immune evasion, i.e., suppressed immune protection, based on the preponderance of clinical evidence that nasal infections occur rapidly post exposure, largely independent of immune status. Global sensitivity methods provide the de-correlated outcome sensitivities to each source of within-host heterogeneity, including the dynamic progression of sensitivities at 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours post infection. The results reveal a dynamic rank-ordering of the drivers of outcome sensitivity in early infection, providing insights into the dramatic population-scale outcome diversity during the COVID-19 pandemic. While we focus on SARS-CoV-2, the model and methods are applicable to any inhaled virus in the immediate 48 hours post infection.