AlphaFold2 can predict single-mutation effects

Abstract

AlphaFold2 (AF) is a promising tool, but is it accurate enough to predict single mutation effects? Here, we report that the localized structural deformation between protein pairs differing by only 1-3 mutations - as measured by the effective strain - is correlated across 3,901 experimental and AF-predicted structures. Furthermore, analysis of [~]11,000 proteins shows that the local structural change correlates with various phenotypic changes. These findings suggest that AF can predict the range and magnitude of single-mutation effects on average, and we propose a method to improve precision of AF predictions and to indicate when predictions are unreliable.