The origins and drivers of Neotropical diversity

The origins and evolution of the outstanding Neotropical biodiversity are still debated. A comprehensive understanding is hindered by the lack of deep-time comparative data across wide phylogenetic and ecological contexts. Here, we evaluate four evolutionary scenarios assuming different diversification trajectories and drivers of Neotropical diversification, and assess their variation across Neotropical regions and taxa. Our analysis of 150 phylogenies (12,512 species) of seed plants and tetrapods reveals that Neotropical diversity has mostly expanded through time (70% of the clades), while scenarios of saturated and declining diversity also account for 21% and 9% of Neotropical diversity, respectively. We identify five biogeographic areas that represent distinctive units of long-term Neotropical evolution (Pan-Amazonia, Dry Diagonal, Bahama-Antilles, Galapagos, and an elsewhere region) and find that diversity dynamics do not differ across these areas, suggesting no geographic structure in long-term Neotropical diversification. In contrast, diversification dynamics differ substantially across taxa: plant diversity mostly expanded through time (88%), while a substantial fraction (43%) of tetrapod diversity accumulated at a slower pace or declined toward the present. These opposite evolutionary patterns may reflect different capacities for plants and tetrapods to cope with climate change, with potential implications for future adaptation and ecosystem resilience.