This study uses a model to show that disease dynamics during ecosystem restoration depend on pathogen transmissibility, timing of slow life history species establishment, and community assembly, not just biodiversity.

bioRxiv · Nov 9, 2026 · PreprintEcology

Modeling spatio-temporal annual changes in the probability of human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) occurrence across Europe

Francesca Dagostin, Diana Erazo, Giovanni Marini, Daniele Da Re, Valentina Tagliapietra, Mária Avdičová, Tatjana Avšič‐Županc, Timothée Dub, Nahuel Fiorito, Nataša Knap, Céline M Gossner, Jana Kerlik, Henna Mäkelä, Mateusz Markowicz, Roya Olyazadeh, , Annapaola P. Rizzoli

Boosted regression trees predict, one year ahead, where human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases are likely in Europe (AUC 0.85 regional, 0.82 municipal), with probability rising in central-western Europe.

One Health · Jan 13, 2026Peer-reviewedEcology✦ In-depth digest

Escalating human exposure to tropical mosquito-borne viruses in Europe

Kyla Serres, Fabiana Gámbaro, Rosa Pietroiusti, Daniele Da Re, Maria Fernanda Vincenti-Gonzalez, Darlan da Silva Cândido, Elena Arsevska, Augustin Jacques de Dixmude, Dánnell Quesada‐Chacón, Matthias Mengel, Dominik Paprotny, Raphaëlle Klitting, Cedric Marsboom, Wim Thiery, Guillaume Ghisbain, , Simon Dellicour

This study assesses the risk of human exposure to dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses in Europe using ecological niche modeling, showing increased risk due to climate change.

bioRxiv · Dec 3, 2025 · PreprintEcology