A lack of repeatability creates the illusion of a trade-off between basal and plastic cold tolerance.

The thermotolerance-plasticity trade-off hypothesis predicts that ectotherms with greater basal thermal tolerance have a lower acclimation capacity. This hypothesis has been tested at both high and low temperatures but the results often conflict. If basal tolerance constrains plasticity (e.g. through shared mechanisms that create physiological constraints), it should be evident at the level of the individual, provided the trait measured is repeatable. Here, we used chill-coma onset temperature and chill-coma recovery time (CCO and CCRT; non-lethal thermal limits) to quantify cold tolerance of Drosophila melanogaster across two trials (pre- and post-acclimation). Cold acclimation improved cold tolerance, as expected, but individual measurements of CCO and CCRT in non-acclimated flies were not (or only slightly) repeatable. Surprisingly, however, there was still a strong correlation between basal tolerance and plasticity in cold-acclimated flies. We argue that this relationship is a statistical artefact (specifically, a manifestation of regression to the mean; RTM) and does not reflect a true trade-off or physiological constraint. Thermal tolerance trade-off patterns in previous studies that used similar methodology are thus likely to be impacted by RTM. Moving forward, controlling and/or correcting for RTM effects is critical to determining whether such a trade-off or physiological constraint truly exists.