Dynamic multimodal survival prediction in multiple myeloma integrating gene expression, longitudinal laboratories, and treatment history

Abstract

Prognostic stratification in multiple myeloma (MM) relies on staging systems that assign patients to fixed categories at diagnosis and discard the temporal information that accumulates during treatment. We developed a dynamic multimodal framework that predicts residual overall survival using observation windows ranging from 1 to 18 months post-diagnosis. The model integrates DeepInsight-transformed gene expression representation, longitudinal laboratory measurement trajectories across 10 analytes, and treatment history for three drug classes through an adaptive fusion mechanism that accounts for missing clinical observations. On the MMRF CoMMpass cohort (n = 752), five-fold cross-validation yielded a concordance index (C-index) of 0.773 {+/-} 0.024 and a time-dependent AUC at a 1-year prediction horizon (tdAUC1yr) of 0.789 {+/-} 0.021, outperforming all evaluated baseline methods including DeepSurv (0.633 {+/-} 0.095) and random survival forests (0.636 {+/-} 0.024) on matched cross-validation splits. Modality ablation identified longitudinal laboratory measurements as the strongest individual contributor (C-index 0.693); the DeepInsight spatial encoding of gene expression yielded higher discrimination than a multilayer perceptron (MLP) baseline operating on the same features (0.624 vs. 0.596). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed significant prognostic group separation at all primary landmarks (log-rank p < 0.001; hazard ratios 3.46-3.93). A distilled student model retaining only the DeepInsight representation and five baseline clinical features achieved C-index 0.672 and tdAUC1yr 0.740 on an independent microarray cohort (GSE24080, n = 507) without retraining. Interpretability analysis identified prognostic associations consistent with established myeloma biology, including ubiquitin-proteasome pathway genes, endoplasmic reticulum stress markers, and Interferon Alpha Response pathway enrichment.