Climate at seed origin drives germination and seedling trait responses to warming in sessile and pubescent oaks

Tree early life stages are particularly sensitive to warming, yet their responses remain poorly understood despite their importance for forest regeneration. Here, we investigated how warming affects early-life traits in two widespread European white oaks: Quercus pubescens and Q. petraea. We conducted a common garden experiment using 17 populations exposed to three temperature regimes. We measured 19 traits encompassing germination, phenology, and functional and fitness-related traits and performed individual trait mixed-effects models based on temperature transfer distance and the climate of the population. We found that population climate was the primary driver of early stages traits responses to warming, with climatic drivers varying strongly among traits and species. Particularly in Q. pubescens, warmer and drier populations showed lower fitness (germination and survival percentages, total biomass) that declined further under warming, consistent with a cost of drought avoidance strategies under continuously wet conditions; in Q. petraea, continental populations outperformed others at low temperature transfer distance but suffered the steepest fitness declines under further warming, suggesting a narrow thermal optimum shaped by cold adaptation. Warming generally advanced germination and leaf emergence, increased leaf pigment concentrations and fine-root allocation, reduced specific leaf area. Extreme warming reduced survival, growth and germination. Nevertheless, moderate warming (+0 to +5{degrees}C) was rarely detrimental and sometimes beneficial. Our results demonstrate that population climatic origin is a key determinant of regeneration responses to warming, highlighting the need to consider within-species adaptive variation to understand forest regeneration potential under climate change.