Integrating Multisource Target Evidence with Machine-Learning Potency Prediction for Alzheimer's Disease Drug Discovery

Abstract

Alzheimer's disease (AD) target evidence is distributed across biological, chemical, structural, regulatory, and trial-registry sources, complicating reproducible target evaluation and modeling. We developed a traceable data-to-model platform that integrates AGORA-centered evidence through Target Explorer, Drug-Target Lookup, and Model Portfolio workspaces. The resource contains 967 targets, 452,249 compounds, and 1,430,260 measurements. On a curated PIK3CA dataset, target-specific fine-tuning of the Boltz-2 affinity head increased Pearson r from 0.248 to 0.560 and reduced mean absolute error from 0.900 to 0.706 on 469 held-out compounds. Separately, we screened 42 regression models over 50 random splits for ten moderate-sized target datasets; a random forest model for XDH achieved the highest mean R^2 (0.815). The platform connects curated evidence, model-ready datasets, reproducible evaluation, and public results while clearly separating contextual evidence from therapeutic claims and random-split performance from generalization to unseen chemical scaffolds.