Selective Sweep at a QTL in a Randomly Fluctuating Environment

Adaptation is mediated by phenotypic traits that are often near continuous, and undergo selective pressures that may change with the environment. The dynamics of allelic frequencies at underlying quantitative trait loci (QTL) depend on their own phenotypic effects, but also possibly on other polymorphic loci affecting the same trait, and on environmental change driving phenotypic selection. Most environments include a substantial component of random noise, characterized by both its magnitude and its temporal autocorrelation, which sets the timescale of environmental predictability. I investigate the dynamics of a mutation affecting a quantitative trait in an autocorrelated stochastic environment that causes random fluctuations of an optimum phenotype. The trait under selection may also exhibit background polygenic variance caused by many polymorphic loci of small effects elsewhere in the genome. In addition, the mutation at the QTL may affect phenotypic plasticity, the phenotypic response of given genotype to its environment of development or expression. Stochastic environmental fluctuations increases the variance of the evolutionary process, with consequences for the probability of a complete sweep at the QTL. Background polygenic variation critically alters this process, by setting an upper limit to stochastic variance of population genetics at the QTL. For a plasticity QTL, stochastic fluctuations also influences the expected selection coefficient, and alleles with the same expected trajectory can have very different stochastic variances. Finally, a mutation may be favored through its effect on plasticity despite causing a systematic mismatch with optimum, which is compensated by evolution of the mean background phenotype.