Quantifying the effects of recent glacial history and future climate change on a unique population of mountain goats

Human disturbance and climate change can impact populations by disrupting movement corridors and reducing important habitat. Characterizing how animals respond to such environmental changes is valuable for conservation as many species, especially habitat specialists, can experience reduced genetic diversity when deleterious habitat change occurs, leading to an increased likelihood of extirpation. Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) exemplify this conservation challenge; their geographically isolated habitat can inhibit gene flow, making them susceptible to population declines in the face of anthropogenic-induced landscape change. To facilitate biologically informed population management of mountain goats in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska, we characterized the fine-scale genetic population structure and examined how future climate change could impact the population density of these mountain goats. We used DNA samples to estimate diversity and depict the genealogical history. Climate response models allowed us to simulate changes to suitable habitat and predict how this might influence future population structure. Our results indicated that three genetically distinct subpopulations exist in Glacier Bay and that the population structure is reflective of the historic landscape patterns. Climate modeling predicted that demographic productivity was likely to be reduced for all subpopulations; additionally, we found that climate change likely degrades the suitability of movement corridors that facilitate gene flow between subpopulations, ultimately increasing the cost of travel. Understanding such fine-scale patterns are key to managing subpopulations, particularly with impending changes to the landscape.