Human-brown bear conflicts in Turkey are driven by increased human presence around protected areas

Abstract

Human-wildlife conflict is increasing steadily worldwide and is rapidly becoming an important challenge for the success of conservation programs. Brown bears, which suffer from reduced habitat suitability and quality globally, frequently conflict with humans. These animals need large home ranges to fulfill their habitat requirements. When space and food are restricted, brown bears frequently shift towards human-dominated landscapes that offer reliable food sources. As a country where most of the landscape and habitats are human-dominated, human-brown bear conflict events (HBCs) are frequent in Turkiye. However, there has been no formal analysis of the nature and scope of these conflicts at the country level. Here, using HBC data from 2017 to 2022, we determined the spatial and temporal dynamics of HBC events and generated a risk probability map based on anthropogenic predictors and geographic profiling, to determine the factors driving HBC across Turkiye. HBC events did not show any annual or seasonal trends but varied considerably across biogeographic regions, with most conflicts occurring along the Black Sea coast and Eastern Anatolia. Sixty percent of all conflicts were due to bear foraging behavior in human settlements while twelve percent were the result of human activity in forests, with 57% of all conflict events resulting in direct injury to either humans or bears. We found that distance to villages, distance to protected areas, distance to farmland and human footprint to be the most important factors contributing to conflict risk. Consequently, 21% of the country was found to be under human-bear conflict risk, with 43% of the risks occurring within a 10 km radius from the centers of protected areas. Our analyses indicate that the high occurrence of HBCs is mainly the result of limited natural areas and resources available to brown bears and the increasing human encroachment in and around core bear habitats.