Macroevolution of fly wings proceeds along developmental lines of least resistance

Evolutionary change necessitates genetic variation, and a reigning paradigm in biology is that rates of microevolution can be predicted from estimates of available genetic variation within populations. However, the accuracy of such predictions should decay on longer evolutionary timescales, as the influence of genetic constraints diminishes. Here, we show that intrinsic developmental variability and standing genetic variation in wing shape in two distantly related flies, Drosophila melanogaster and Sepsis punctum, are aligned and predict deep divergence in the dipteran phylogeny, spanning >900 taxa and 185 My. This alignment cannot easily be explained by constraint hypotheses unless most of the quantified standing genetic variation is associated with deleterious side-effects and effectively unusable for evolution. However, phenotyping of 71 genetic lines of S. punctum revealed no covariation between wing shape and fitness, lending no support to this hypothesis. We also find little evidence for genetic constraints on the pace of wing shape evolution along the dipteran phylogeny. Instead, correlational selection related to allometric scaling, simultaneously shaping developmental bias and deep divergence in fly wings, emerges as a potential explanation for the observed alignment. This suggests that pervasive natural selection has the potential to shape developmental architectures of some morphological characters such that their intrinsic variability predicts their long-term evolution.