The dynamics of wild Vitis species in response to climate change facilitate the breeding of grapevine and its rootstocks with climate resilience

Abstract

Climate change poses significant challenges to agricultural suitability and food security due to the limited adaptability of domesticated crops, however, our understanding of their climate adaptability is still limited. In this study, we compare the potential distributional dynamics in response to future climate change between grapevine and its wild relatives (Vitis L.) based on ecological niche models (ENMs). We reveal that the annual mean temperature is the primary factor influencing the potential distribution of cultivated grapes (V. vinifera L.). By 2080, under RCP 8.5, suitable areas for wine and table grapes from V. vinifera are predicted to reduced by 15.04x105 km{superscript 2} and 13.26x105 km{superscript 2}, respectively. The results suggest that grape cultivation, particularly for table grapes, will face serious threats from future climate change. In contrast, seventy percent of wild grapes are well able to withstand future climate conditions. For example, under RCP 8.5, North American wild grapes like V. rotundifolia and V. labrusca, as well as East Asian wild grapes such as V. heyneana and V. davidii, are projected to demonstrate significant adaptability. These wild grapes have the potential to provide rootstocks that could enhance the adaptability of cultivated grapes and serve as invaluable resources for breeding programs aimed at developing new cultivars better suited to withstand the environmental pressures of climate change. Our results not only predict potential suitable distribution areas of wild grapes in the future, but also emphasize the essential impact of these wild genetic resources on grape breeding for promoting adaptation to future climate change.