Elongated sample plot shapes produce higher measurement precision in clustering populations

Monitoring the density of natural populations is crucial for ecosystem management decision making and natural resource management. The most widely used method to measure the population density of animal and plant species in natural habitats is to count organisms in sample plots. Yet evaluation of survey performance by different sample plot shapes, e.g. quadrats compared with transects, has been largely neglected since the 1990s and has not been undertaken using simulation. Simulating populations and surveys, we evaluated population density measurement precision for 900 cases, testing 30 sample plot survey designs in each of 30 spatially clustered populations. We varied three design options: elongation of plot shape while keeping sample area constant, systematic or random plot allocation, and sample size. Survey design performance varied markedly: elongating the plot shape always improved survey precision; allocating plots systematically sometimes did. (i) Averaged across all tested populations, elongated (1:100) transect plot shapes were 2-to-3 times more precise than square (10:10) quadrats. (ii) The precision of systematic surveys accelerated with sample plot number, increasing faster than the (known) linear increase under simple random sampling. This non-linear, concave upward, dependence of systematic precision on sample size has not previously been reported. (iii) The most precise design we evaluated used long narrow transects allocated systematically. Averaging among all 30 tested populations, a researcher would need 600 random square (10:10) quadrats to equal the precision achieved by 100 systematic (1:100) transects. Finding this average efficiency difference of 600% for a survey sample size of 100 plots, these simulation results imply that field trips requiring five sampling days using random quadrats could achieve equal precision in one or two days using systematic elongated transects. For all clustered populations we tested, long narrow transects resulted in a more efficient design for sample plot survey.