Use of an enclosed elk population to assess two non-invasive methods for estimating population size

Non-invasive genetic sampling and spatially explicit capture-recapture (SCR) models are used increasingly to estimate abundance of wildlife populations, but have not been adequately tested on gregarious animals such as elk (Cervus canadensis), for which correlated space use and movements violate model assumptions of independence. To evaluate the robustness and accuracy of SCR, and to assess the utility of an alternative non-invasive method for estimating density of gregarious ungulates, we utilized a tule elk (Cervus canadensis nannodes) population of known size within a fenced enclosure on the San Luis National Wildlife Refuge in central California. We evaluated fecal genetic SCR to camera trap-based random encounter model (REM) approaches to density estimation based on comparison to the true abundance. We also subsampled the dataset to explore the effects of varying search effort and elk density on the precision and accuracy of results. We found that SCR outperformed REM methods in the full datasets, and reliably provided accurate (relative bias <10%) and reasonably precise (relative standard error [≤]20%) estimates of density at moderately low to high densities (6-17 elk/km2), when the subsampling scenarios yielded a minimum average of 20 recaptures. We also found that the number of samples used to construct detection histories was a reliable predictor of precision, and could be used to establish minimum sampling requirements in future population surveys of elk. Although field-testing in free-ranging populations is needed, our results suggest that non-invasive genetic SCR is a promising tool for future population studies and monitoring of elk and potentially other gregarious ungulates. In contrast, the REM estimate of density was highly inaccurate, imprecise, and highly sensitive to camera parameters.