Ecological factors alter how spatial overlap predicts viral infection dynamics in wild rodent populations

Abstract

Spatial overlap between animals in wildlife populations can have important implications for pathogen transmission. Ecological factors and animal demographic traits can influence animal space use and spatial overlap, but it is unclear how these interactions drive pathogen transmission. We experimentally manipulated wild bank vole populations via resource supplementation and anthelmintic treatment. Using network analysis, we investigated the relationship between spatial overlap and infection likelihood of an endemic zoonotic hantavirus, including how vole sex and reproductive status interact with spatial behaviour to affect infection likelihood. Spatial overlap in a previous month drove the likelihood of current hantavirus infection, and food supplementation and anthelmintic treatment altered the effects of spatial overlap on infection likelihood. Vole sex and reproductive status were important factors determining whether spatial overlap increased or decreased the likelihood of hantavirus infection and interacted with resource supplementation and anthelmintic treatment, generating different infection dynamics in each treatment. Our research provides rare empirical evidence linking previous spatial overlap to current infection status in wildlife populations, with implications for understanding disease dynamics and persistence as well as developing effective management efforts. We further highlight the importance of incorporating variation in ecological factors and host demography when studying pathogen transmission in wildlife systems.