Greening conceals evergreening: contrasting trends for a socio-ecological system in Arctic Europe

O_LIOngoing Arctic greening can increase productivity and reindeer pasture quality in the tundra. However, greening may also entail proliferation of unpalatable species, with distinct consequences for pastoral socio-ecological systems (SES). C_LIO_LIWe show extensive greening across 20 reindeer districts in northern Norway between 2003 and 2020. The allelopathic, evergreen dwarf-shrub crowberry biomass increased by 60%, contrasted by smaller increases of deciduous dwarf-shrubs and stagnating forb and graminoid biomass. C_LIO_LIWe found evidence, although uncertain, of a negative relationship between biomass and reindeer densities, but only among forbs, the least abundant plant group. C_LIO_LIOur results challenge the management decision-making, which aims at sustainable pasture management, but which assumes stationary density-dependent relationships. Changes in temporal vs. spatial relationships should be included as management criteria, to avoid mismanaging a SES in transition. C_LIO_LILarge-scale shift towards increased allelopathy may undermine the resource base of a key Arctic herbivore and pastoral SES. C_LI