Onset of infectiousness explains differences in transmissibility across Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages

Etthel M. Windels; Cecilia Valenzuela Agüí; Bouke Catherine de Jong; Conor Joseph Meehan; Chloé Loiseau; Galo Adrián Goig; Michaela Zwyer; Sònia Borrell; Daniela Brites; Sébastien Gagneux; Tanja Stadler

doi:10.1101/2024.08.27.609909

GenomicsbioRxivAug 27, 2024

Preprint

Onset of infectiousness explains differences in transmissibility across Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages

Etthel M. Windels iD, Cecilia Valenzuela Agüí iD, Bouke Catherine de Jong iD, Conor Joseph Meehan iD, Chloé Loiseau iD, Galo Adrián Goig iD, Michaela Zwyer iD, Sònia Borrell iD, Daniela Brites iD, Sébastien Gagneux iD, Tanja Stadler iD

Abstract

Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) lineages show substantial variability in virulence, but the epidemiological consequences of this variability have not been studied in detail. Here, we aimed for a lineage-specific epidemiological characterization by applying phylodynamic models to genomic data from different countries, representing the most abundant MTBC lineages. Our results show that all lineages are associated with similar durations and levels of infectiousness, resulting in similar reproductive numbers. However, L1 and L6 are associated with a delayed onset of infectiousness, leading to longer periods between subsequent transmission events. Together, our findings highlight the role of MTBC phylogenetic diversity in tuberculosis disease progression and transmission.

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