Temporal Prediction through Integration of Probability Distributions of Event Timings at Multiple Levels

Abstract

Our brain uses prior experience to anticipate the timing of upcoming events. This dynamical process can be modeled using a hazard function derived from the probability distribution of event timings. However, the contexts of an event can lead to various probability distributions for the same event, and it remains unclear how the brain integrates these distributions into a coherent temporal prediction. In this study, we create a local-global foreperiod paradigm consisting of a sequence of paired trials, where in each trial, participants respond to a target signal after a specified time interval (i.e. foreperiod) following a warning cue. The prediction of the target onset in the second trial can be based on the probability distribution of the second foreperiod (local level) and its conditional probability given the foreperiod in the first trial (global level). These probability distributions are then transformed into hazard functions to represent the local and global temporal predictions. Reaction times to the target signal are best explained by incorporating both local and global predictions, indicating that both levels of temporal information contribute to making predictions. We further show that electroencephalographic source signals are best reconstructed when integrating both predictions. Specifically, the local and global predictions are separately encoded in the posterior and anterior brain regions, and to achieve synergy between both predictions, a third region--particularly the right posterior cingulate area--is needed. Our study reveals brain networks that integrate multilevel temporal information, providing a comprehensive view of hierarchical predictive coding of time.