Cross-sectional genomic perspective of epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2: a pan India study

Abstract

COVID-19 has posed unforeseen circumstances and throttled major economies worldwide. India has witnessed two waves affecting around 31 million people representing 16% of the cases globally. To date, the epidemic waves have not been comprehensively investigated to understand pandemic progress in India. In the present study, we aim for a cross-sectional analysis since its first incidence up to 26th July 2021. We have performed the pan Indian evolutionary study using 20,086 high-quality complete genomes of SARS-CoV-2. Based on the number of cases reported and mutation rates, we could divide the Indian epidemic into seven different phases. First, three phases constituting the pre-first wave had a very less average mutation rate (<11), which increased in the first wave to 17 and then doubled in the second wave (~34). In accordance with the mutation rate, variants of concern (alpha, beta, gamma and delta) and interest (eta and kappa) also started appearing in the first wave (1.5% of the genomes), which dominated the second (~96% of genomes) and post-second wave (100% of genomes) phases. Whole genome-based phylogeny could demarcate the post-first wave isolates from previous ones by the point of diversification leading to incidences of VOCs and VOIs in India. Nation-wide mutational analysis depicted more than 0.5 million events with four major mutations in ~97% of the total 20,086 genomes in the study. These included two mutations in coding (spike (D614G) and NSP 12b (P314L) of RNA dependent RNA polymerase), one silent mutation (NSP3 F106F) and one extragenic mutation (5 UTR 241). Large scale genome-wide mutational analysis is crucial in expanding knowledge on evolution of deadly variants of SARS-CoV-2 and timely management of the pandemic.