Preliminary prediction of the potential distribution and consequences of Haemaphysalis longicornis (Ixodida: Ixodidae) in the United States and North America, using a simple rule-based climate envelope model

Haemaphysalis longicornis, the Asian longhorned (or bush) tick has been detected on a sheep in August 2017 in Hunterdon County, New Jersey. By October 26, 2018, this tick has been detected in 44 counties in 9 states along the Atlantic coast of the United States, with the first detection backdated to 2010. Here, I use a simple rule-based climate envelope model, based on a prior analysis in New Zealand, to provide a preliminary analysis of the potential range of this introduced tick species in North America. After validating this model against the counties where the tick has been already detected, I highlight the counties where this tick might cause considerable economic harm. I discuss the many limitations of this simple approach, and potential remedies for these limitations, and more sophisticated approaches. Finally, I conclude that substantial areas of the US, especially along the Gulf and Atlantic coast, are suitable for the establishment of this tick, putting millions of heads of livestock potentially at risk.