Generative whole-brain dynamics models from healthy subjects predict functional alterations in stroke at the level of individual patients

Computational whole-brain models describe the resting activity of each brain region based on a local model, inter-regional functional interactions, and a structural connectome that specifies the strength of inter-regional connections. Strokes damage the healthy structural connectome that forms the backbone of these models and produce large alterations in inter-regional functional interactions. These interactions are typically measured by correlating the timeseries of activity between two brain regions, so-called resting functional connectivity. We show that adding information about the structural disconnections produced by a patients lesion to a whole-brain model previously trained on structural and functional data from a large cohort of healthy subjects predicts the resting functional connectivity of the patient about as well as fitting the model directly to the patients data. Furthermore, the model dynamics reproduce functional connectivity-based measures that are typically abnormal in stroke patients as well as measures that specifically isolate these abnormalities. Therefore, although whole-brain models typically involve a large number of free parameters, the results show that even after fixing those parameters, the model reproduces results from a population very different than the population on which the model was trained. In addition to validating the model, these results show that the model mechanistically captures relationships between the anatomical structure and functional activity of the human brain.