Converging paths: Harnessing ensemble modelling to predict human wild pig conflict risk zones in Tamil Nadu, India

Abstract

Growing human populations and human activity intensify human-wildlife conflicts, particularly with wild pigs (Sus scrofa), necessitating consideration of both human and wildlife requirements. This complexity demands a comprehensive assessment of causes, impacts, and mitigation strategies for such conflicts. In order to address these issues, we conducted studies across the forest divisions of Tamil Nadu by collecting secondary data on conflicts from 2016 to 2021. Out of the 3301 incidents we collected, 94.4% were specifically related to crop damage and occurred mostly during the month of December, followed by November. Dharmapuri Forest Division was found to be the highest contributor to overall conflicts. Temporal analysis revealed conflict peaks in December, followed by November and September. Using ensemble modelling we predicted a conflict risk zone of approximately 49,223 km2, which represents 37.8% of the total area of Tamil Nadu. Variables like human modification index and mean annual temperature had the highest contribution to model performance. Our models projections indicate that areas with cultivated lands in close proximity to the fringes of forests, especially in regions where there is a greater degree of human modification, are associated with heightened levels of conflict risk. This study provides a concise overview of a comprehensive study on human-wild pig conflict, encompassing an exploration of conflict triggers and ecological impacts in the state of Tamil Nadu. The study offers a comprehensive roadmap for managing human-wild pig conflicts in Tamil Nadu, highlighting key triggers, ecological impacts, and conflict risk factors.