Rosettes in a matrix: Predicting spatial variation in density of a large felid in a forest-production mosaic

Large carnivores are keystone for ecosystems and flagships for conservation efforts but face severe threats globally. Protected Areas are vital for the conservation of these charismatic species along with a host of ecological processes. However, the extent and scope of protected areas for conservation of all threatened species is limited, especially in the global south. Considering larger landscapes that can be compatible with large carnivore conservation goals is an alternative approach to ensure their persistence. This study explores the potential of multi-use landscapes for the persistence of a globally threatened large felid, the leopard. This study investigated the spatial variability of leopard densities across a land-use gradient using spatially explicit capture-recapture framework in a tea-plantation dominated forest-production landscape mosaic. While the density of leopards in this landscape was estimated to be 7.96 {+/-} 1.56 (SE) per 100 km2, significant (p=0.048, t=2.02, df=61) differences in estimates were observed between tea-plantations (11.53 {+/-} 2.72 (SE) leopards per 100 km2) and the forested habitats (4.67 {+/-} 2.07 (SE) per 100 km2). Densities between tea plantations and Protected Areas (a subset of the forested habitat) were found to be comparable (9.19 {+/-} 4.55 (SE) per 100 km2). The study posits that conservation-compatible land use in landscapes shared with people can host a higher density of large felids than forested areas and that conservation planning needs to move beyond the dominant PA-centric paradigm. The study also reinforces the importance of multi-use landscapes for wildlife conservation, especially for an adaptable large felid.