Beyond Deficit and Coexistence: Modeling the Knowledge-Conspiracy-Mistrust Configuration in Public Understanding of Science

Debates about public trust in science often contrast deficit-based models, which emphasize the role of scientific knowledge, with constructivist perspectives that highlight the coexistence of multiple epistemologies. However, both approaches tend to overlook the mechanisms that link scientific knowledge, alternative epistemic orientations, and mistrust in science. To address this gap, the study applies a multilevel structural equation model within a multidimensional framework to examine conspiratorial reasoning as a key mechanism through which scientific knowledge influences science mistrust. Using cross-national survey data from Europe during the COVID-19 pandemic, the analysis also considers how this pathway is moderated by individual cognitive, motivational, and ideological traits, as well as macro-level political, cultural and economic factors. The findings reveal that conspiratorial reasoning significantly mediates the relationship between scientific knowledge and mistrust at both individual and regional levels. Moreover, the strength of these associations is conditioned by factors like informational engagement, regional value climates, and religiosity. Overall, the results suggest that scientific knowledge serves as a conditional epistemic resource, rather than a consistent buffer against mistrust in science.