Age-dependent extinction and the neutral theory of biodiversity

Red Queen (RQ) theory states that adaptation does not protect species from extinction because their competitors are continually adapting alongside them. RQ was founded on the apparent independence of extinction risk and fossil taxon age, but analytical developments have since demonstrated that age-dependent extinction is widespread, usually most intense among young species. Here we develop ecological neutral theory as a general framework for modeling fossil species survivorship under incomplete sampling. We show that it provides excellent fit to a high-resolution dataset of species durations for Paleozoic zooplankton, and more broadly can account for age-dependent extinction seen throughout the fossil record. Unlike widely used alternative models, the neutral model has parameters with biological meaning, thereby generating testable hypotheses on changes in ancient ecosystems. The success of this approach suggests novel interpretations of mass extinctions and of scaling in eco-evolutionary systems. Intense extinction among young species does not necessarily refute RQ or require a special explanation, but can instead be parsimoniously explained by neutral dynamics operating across species regardless of age. Significance StatementRed Queen theory predicts that competition among species should cause extinction risk to be independent of species age, but recent analyses have refuted this central prediction. To fill the resulting theoretical vacuum, we used ecological neutral theory to build a model of the lifespans of incompletely sampled species evolving under zero-sum competition. This model predicts survivorship among fossil zooplankton with surprising accuracy and accounts for empirical deviations from the predictions of Red Queen more generally. A neutral model of background extinction allows for interpreting survivorship curves in terms of biological process, suggests a novel understanding of mass extinctions, and supports a role for competition in extinction.